The short and violent road from pro-Russian oligarchy to anti-Russian one

by Stanislawski
The complete failure of the Ukrainian ?revolution? seems obvious. The perspectives for any major change have been buried for long time. Whatever will come out of the current geostrategic game between the US and the Russian Federation the Ukrainian people will not benefit from it. The question is rather how much they can still lose.

No matter how poor, corrupt and failed in all aspects of Ukrainian statehood is there still is a space to make things significantly worse for the population. Eastern Europe became a very particular place on the global map. This is where ? despite the official propaganda ? the new third-world standards have been developing. While the ?traditional? Third World regions ? parts of Africa, Asia and Latin America ? became ?developing countries? the post-soviet bloc fell into a complete economic collapse. Ukraine is definitely among those Eastern European countries which have hit the bottom in the most brutal manner. If we leave aside the absolute mafia-princedoms like Kosovo and Montenegro only Bulgaria and Romania can really compete with Ukraine in terms of absolute structural, social and economic failure. Yet, things can get worse. And they most likely will.

The truth about the course of events from the peaceful pro-EU demos in Kiev to a regular right-wing coup d?etat in Ukraine cannot be determined at the moment. To any rational observer it is absolutely obvious that the media bias reached far beyond any limits one was used to. However, what one can be certain about is the overall result of the ?revolution?. And it is definitely a negative one.

Ukraine has no future in the EU. But even if it actually had any it will now not be possible to enter this community. After the factual annexation of Crimea by the Russian Federation the problem of the real border status will be a major one which creates a fantastic excuse for the Euro-bureaucracy to keep discussing potential accession possibilities with Ukraine forever. At the same time the IMF, the WB et al will do their job and we will soon see the Ukrainian indebtedness growing into unspoken of sizes. The Greek collapse will look like a child?s play in comparison with what is ahead of the Ukrainian masses. Also, Russian administration will now consider the new Ukrainian authorities hostile. And if one considers that until now it was only thanks to this tight link that the Ukrainian economy existed at all things start to look really bleak.

On the global geopolitical front things do not look very clear either. NATO (the US) obviously decided to give it a try once again (can you still remember the infamous ?Orange Revolution? from before five years?) and to cut off Russia from access to the Black Sea and to make another step within the old plan to surround this country with its military bases. Certainly, there will be no NATO bases in Crimea. It seems rather unrealistic to place them in Western Ukraine as it poses a serious risk of Eastern Ukraine secession (which would be welcomed by Russia) which would result in a grotesque Ukrainian utterly-failed state that would immediately become something between Kosovo and South Sudan. So the game is far from over.

Only one thing is really sure ? the pendulum in Ukraine has definitely swung to the right, therefore all the institutions fell into the hands of people who are politically illiterate. They not only have no serious agenda (let alone experience), but are driven exclusively by their pretentious emotions which are shared by a significant part of the Ukrainian masses. The notorious boxer Klichko has nothing to offer at all apart from absurd phrases about ?modernization? and ?europeanization?. Same goes for the current president ? Arsenyiy Yatzenyuk. And Tiagnybok ? the leader of the extreme-right-wing ?Svoboda? party has only his positive sentiments to the semi-fascist UPA to put forward plus the desire to revise borders with Poland and Russia. In the background of these desires we have a strong russophobic tradition which has now in Ukraine ? with all its stupidity and naivety ? came to the forefront of the mainstream politics (it happened in a milder form in Poland in 2005 when the Kaczyński twins took power). The Ukrainian strongly russophobic right wing ? as it has no other platform besides its radical anti-Russian sentiments ? it is doomed to depend completely on the will of the western (be it European or American) imperialism which is not prepared to invest there anything apart from loans which the new government will have to accept. Otherwise the country will go bankrupt within months.

Bojan Stanislawski

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